UlasanAnime.com – Fighting reverse importation is a challenging endeavor, often stemming from a cascade of unfortunate events. It’s understandable to feel frustrated when Japan’s decisions, such as making the Persona 4 anime Blu-ray release less appealing to its domestic audience, impact the market. However, the true disappointment lies in how these decisions alienate nearly everyone, with the exception of a niche market that likely doesn’t warrant such consideration.
To grasp the situation, consider ANN’s licensing write-up. A crucial concept here is the Minimum Guarantee (MG), which forms the bulk of revenue for anime licensors. For some titles, sales exceed the MG, allowing US companies to recoup their investment and eventually enter profit-sharing. This is the ideal scenario. The specifics of these contracts are varied, and detailed knowledge beyond common industry practices is scarce.
For the majority of late-night anime, the MG is relatively small, perhaps around $25,000. Now, compare this to a best-selling title. For instance, if the profit from Fate/Zero BD boxes (a hypothetical example, as it sold exceptionally well) is 30% of the Manufacturer’s Suggested Retail Price (MSRP) – with the total MSRP for two boxes being 75,600 yen, making 30% approximately 22,680 yen – losing just 1,000 units in sales due to reverse importing would result in a loss of 22,680,000 yen. This translates to roughly a quarter of a million dollars, or ten times the MG. Given that the average late-night anime sells around 4,000 units, this tenfold impact is significant.
Naturally, a North American licensee for a title like Fate/Zero would face an MG considerably higher than $25,000. While Persona 4 anime is not Fate/Zero, its sales figures are noteworthy. Persona 4 anime sold over 20,000 BD units in its first week. If we estimate its cost to be similar to Fate/Zero (7600 * 9 + 4000 = 72,400 yen) and assume it performs half as well in Japan as Fate/Zero, with a loss of only 500 units from reverse importation at a 30% profit margin, the financial impact would be around $130,000 to $140,000.
The exact extent of reverse importation, alongside the number of individuals who opt for domestic releases over imported ones, remains unknown. However, the available figures are compelling. If a typical one-cour R1 DVD collection yields about $14 in profit, a domestic licensee would need to sell ten thousand copies to break even against a $140,000 loss. While these numbers can be adjusted, 10,000 units in sales typically represent the performance of a best-seller during the R1 bubble era.
This context might explain why Fate/Zero has not been licensed in North America, with the exception of Kaze. It also sheds light on why the P4 anime BD lacks a dub, at least partially. Reverse importation can be combatted through various strategies. However, the existence of this issue and the logical response from Japanese companies, who are adept at financial analysis, becomes clear upon closer examination.
Adding to this perspective, Shawn K. noted that approximately 500 units of the Kara no Kyoukai BD box were sold through Aniplex’s “official import” program. This detail warrants consideration.
For further insights into reverse importation, one can refer to previous discussions on the topic, which highlight how individuals purchasing titles like Infinite Stratos or P4 anime might not have bought the domestic release even if they had the financial means. A percentage of these reverse imports can be reasonably considered as lost domestic sales. While ethical considerations, such as “fighting the system” or “supporting the creator,” might influence these decisions, they often have little impact on financial spreadsheets.
The mathematics are straightforward: even a small degree of this substitution effect can render the MG revenue insignificant. Japanese accountants simply need enough evidence to justify a three-digit loss in sales.
Another aspect to consider is Persona 4’s status as an Aniplex title. Aniplex’s strategic decisions, particularly in light of their recent dispute with Amazon, are significant. The timing of the P4 anime BD release announcement, shortly after Otakon, suggests a close call with Sentai. While the effectiveness of such strategies is uncertain, it reflects the market dynamics for popular otaku titles in Japan. As pointed out, the overall economic climate plays a crucial role. With the current yen exchange rate, the price gap between Japanese releases and those in other regions will inevitably widen, a factor beyond anyone’s control and another element negatively impacting financial projections.
The sole mitigating factor is the anticipated popularity of the Persona 4 anime in America, which could ensure sufficient DVD sales for profitability. The price adjustment on the BD also appears to be a concession from Aniplex. Whether this will be enough to sway those who might have purchased the anime on DVD but will now refrain due to the limited BD release remains to be seen.
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